海螺水泥在中國的水泥企業中是龍頭企業，所以他的不合作則會導致這次聯合行動胎死腹中，就意味水泥的產能過剩問題不會得到舒緩，而根據海螺水泥的年度計劃，他會將現時熟料產能8586萬噸提升至10746萬噸，水泥產能9460萬噸提升至11990萬噸。若果以大型企業的擴產來推論，產能過剩情況將會愈演愈烈，一部份中小型水泥企業將會採取停產策略，而市場會由部份有能力的大型水泥企業所壟斷。但在這個過程中，所有水泥企業的盈利都會有所下降，大型的企業則會因為產能龐大而可以採薄利多銷的手法生存，從而減少損失，但較小型的水泥企業則可能正如海螺水泥淅江區副總裁所言：「該投資的還得投，該死的終究要死。」當然，事情會否如本文預期般發展，則還需看中央的政策會否願意扶持體質較差的企業，這都需要一段時間才能知曉。
2009年5月27日星期三
中國水泥企業的將來?
自中央推出四萬億救市方案以來，基建股、建材股的價格升幅理想，其中安徽海螺水泥(914)由低位的13.5港元升至51.2港元，升幅達3.79倍；亞洲水泥(743)同樣由低位1.34港元升至5.66港元，升幅達4.2倍。山水水泥(691)則由低位的0.76港元升至4.8港元，升幅高達6.3倍。筆者之所以要列舉這些股票，事緣是讀到內地一篇新聞報導，內容是指早前內地的水泥協會開了一次會議，希望所有水泥企業實施減產，以解決產能過剩問題。就長江三角的水泥供應量3.3億噸比需求量2.5億噸高出8千萬噸，這意味供應比需求高32%，華東華南地區的水泥市場因供求不平衡，逝將水泥價格推至谷底。基於這個原因，大部份與會者都提出減產的提議，但與會者中卻不是每個都認同這種做法。這個唱反調的龍頭企業就是安徽海螺水泥，他們認為應該以市場的法則行事，就是汰弱留強，這個時候不但不應該減產，而應該增產以擴大市場佔有率。
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